Last Friday, U.S. equities ended sharply lower following China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs in response to recent U.S. tariff hikes. The renewed trade tensions overshadowed a solid jobs report and reignited concerns about a potential economic slowdown. Major indexes posted their steepest declines since 2020, reflecting heightened investor caution despite strong labor market data.

• Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 15,587.79, dropping 5.82% on the day and 10.02% for the week.
• NYSE Composite Index closed at 17,618.61, losing 6.12% on the day and 8.57% for the week.
• S&P 500 Index ended at 5,074.08, down 5.97% on the day and 9.08% over the week.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average EW closed at 11,834.12, falling 5.59% on the day and 8.45% for the week.

European stock markets saw notable declines on Friday, as escalating trade tensions were triggered by the U.S. administration’s announcement of sweeping tariffs.

• The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed at 496.33, slipping 5.12% on the day and 8.44% for the week.
• DAX Performance Index declined to 20,641.72, shedding 4.95% on the day and 8.10% over the week.
• CAC 40 Index dropped to 7,274.95, down 4.26% on the day and 8.10% for the week.

Asia-Pacific stock markets also experienced significant declines amid escalating trade tensions following the U.S. administration’s announcement of sweeping tariffs.​

On Friday, several major Asian stock markets, including the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX), were closed in observance of the Qingming Festival.

• Nikkei 225 Index settled at 33,780.58, falling 2.75% on the day and 9.00% for the week.
• Hang Seng Index closed flat at 22,849.81, unchanged on the day, but down 2.46% for the week.
• Shanghai Composite Index remained unchanged at 3,342.01 on the day, slipping 0.28% for the week.
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 Index finished at 7,667.80, losing 2.44% on the day and 3.94% over the week.

• • The Dollar Index (DXY), a closely watched gauge of the U.S. dollar’s performance against other major currencies, closed at 103.02, gaining 0.93% on the day but declining 0.98% over the week and 5.01% year-to-date.
  • The Brent crude oil, the global oil price benchmark, settled at $65.58 per barrel, plunging 6.50% on the day and 9.87% for the week, bringing its year-to-date loss to 12.14%.
  • The Gold ended at $3,037.10 per ounce, falling 2.43% on the day and 1.53% over the week, though still up 15.73% year-to-date.
  • The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield particularly responsive to Federal Reserve policy rates, 3.66%, down 6.30 basis points on the day and 24.80 bps for the week, with a total YTD drop of 59.00 bps.
  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield an indicator of long-term borrowing costs, closed at 4.01%, falling 4.60 basis points on the day and 24.60 bps over the week, down 56.70 bps year-to-date.

This week, the trade war will continue to dominate, with traders assessing the effects of US tariffs and potential counteractions from other countries. On Friday, Fed Chair Powell stated in his speech that the impact of tariffs on the economy is likely to be greater than expected, indicating the possibility of higher inflation and lower growth.

In the US, March inflation data and FOMC minutes will be closely monitored.

All eyes will be on Thursday’s inflation report in the US, as recent data suggests easing price pressures.

Consumer prices rose just 0.2% month-on-month in February, down from January’s 0.5% increase. Core inflation also softened, falling to 3.1% annually, the lowest since April 2021—and rising 0.2% month-on-month, both below expectations.

Annual CPI slowed to 2.8% in February, down from 3% in January and below the forecast of 2.9%. This was largely due to a 0.2% drop in energy prices, with inflation easing in shelter and transportation.

For March, the headline CPI is expected to slow slightly from 0.2% to 0.1% month-on-month, with the annual rate dropping from 2.8% to 2.6%. Core CPI is expected to ease to 3%. March’s headline PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% month-on-month, up from flat in February, with the annual rate slightly increasing to 3.3%.

On the monetary policy front, the FOMC minutes will offer insights into the Fed’s economic outlook, interest rate trajectory, and its stance on trade and fiscal policies. While the Fed kept rates unchanged in March, it raised its inflation projections and lowered growth forecasts, citing tariffs as a significant risk to the outlook. Fed Chairman Powell stated that the Fed would not rush to change its monetary policy stance, emphasizing that it was in a good position to wait for more clarity. He also noted that monetary policy is not on a predetermined path.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to show a fourth consecutive drop in consumer confidence. Other important US releases include the NFIB Business Optimism Index, consumer credit change, and wholesale inventories.

In the Americas, key data to watch includes inflation, PPI, and retail sales in Brazil, along with inflation reports from Mexico.

In the Euro Area, retail trade grew by 0.3% month-over-month in February 2025, after three months of stagnation, but this was below the expected 0.5% increase.

In Germany, industrial production declined by 1.3% month-on-month in February after an increase in January. The decline was mainly due to a 3.2% drop in the construction activity.

Swiss consumer confidence, though still negative, is set to improve slightly.

Other key data releases include Germany’s trade and final inflation figures, the UK’s Halifax House Price Index, France’s foreign trade, Russia’s Q4 GDP and inflation rate.

In the UK, the ONS will publish monthly GDP figures, along with data on industrial, manufacturing, and construction output, and foreign trade. The British economy is expected to show slight growth in February, with manufacturing activity also forecast to improve.

On Friday, the United Kingdom will release industrial production data for February. Industrial production dropped 0.9% in January 2025, marking the steepest monthly decline since April last year and far worse than the 0.1% dip markets had expected. The fall reverses a 0.5% gain seen in December, with manufacturing output slipping 1.1% and mining and quarrying slipping 3.3%.

Not all sectors were in the red, though—electricity and gas rebounded slightly, while water and waste management saw a notable 2.6% jump. On an annual basis, output fell 1.5%, a softer decline than December’s 1.9% but still well below forecasts for a 0.7% drop.

Looking ahead, industrial production in the United Kingdom is expected to rise by 0.1% month-over-month but decrease by 1.6% year-over-year in February.