With U.S. markets closed last Friday for the Good Friday holiday, trading activity was muted, and Wall Street indices ended Thursday’s session little changed. Last week, Fed Chair Powell emphasized the impact of government policies on the economy and stated that they would not rush into rate cuts.

 As of 17 April 2025:

• Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 16,286.45, falling 0.13% on the day and 2.62% for the week.
• NYSE Composite Index closed at 18,367.12, rising 0.67% on the day and 0.81% for the week.
• S&P 500 Index closed at 5,282.70, rising 0.13% on the day and falling 1.50% for the week.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average EW closed at 12,177.58, falling 0.05% on the day and 1.51% for the week.

Last Friday, European markets were also closed due to the Good Friday. On the daily front, European stock markets saw declines due to weaker-than-expected earnings from luxury brands and ongoing concerns over U.S. trade policies. The week’s gains were fuelled by optimism about potential U.S. tariff exemptions, especially for the auto sector in countries like Mexico and Canada.

• Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed at 506.42, falling 0.13% on the day and rising 4.03% for the week.
• DAX Performance Index closed at 21,205.86, falling 0.49% on the day and rising 4.08% for the week.
• CAC 40 Index closed at 7,285.86, falling 0.60% on the day and rising 2.55% for the week.

** Many European stock exchanges will be closed today due to the Easter holiday.

Several Asian markets were also closed last Friday in observance of Good Friday except for Tokyo Stock Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange. On the last trading day, Asian stock markets displayed a mix of performances, influenced by global trade developments and domestic economic factors.

• Nikkei 225 Index climbed 1.03% to close at 34,730.28, gaining 3.41% over the week.
• Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.11% to finish at 3,276.73, though it rose 1.19% for the week.
• Hang Seng Index closed at 21,395.14, rising 1.61% on the day and 2.30% for the week.
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 Index closed at 7,819.10, rising 0.78% on the day and 2.26% for the week.

• The Dollar Index (DXY), a closely watched gauge of the U.S. dollar’s performance against other major currencies, closed at 99.24, down 0.14% on the day and 0.52% over the week., and down 8.49% year-to-date.
• The Brent crude oil, the global oil price benchmark, closed at $67.96, rising 3.20% on the day and 4.94% for the week, and down 8.95% year-to-date.
• The Gold ended at $3,326.27, falling 0.72% on the day and rising 2.77% for the week, and soaring 26.74% year-to-date.
• The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield particularly responsive to Federal Reserve policy rates, at 3.81%, rising 2.50 bps on the day and falling 14.50 bps for the week, and down 44.30 bps year-to-date.
• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield an indicator of long-term borrowing costs, ended at 4.33%, rising 4.80 bps on the day and falling 16.30 bps for the week, and slipping 24.60 bps year-to-date.

The first quarter earnings season ramps up this week, beginning with Tesla’s closely watched report on Tuesday. Key updates will follow from major names including Alphabet, Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo, Intel, Boeing, Merck, Philip Morris International, IBM, b, Verizon, T-Mobile, Comcast, CME Group, Newmont, and Fiserv. 

Beyond earnings, investors will pay close attention to comments from several Federal Reserve officials—Philip Jefferson, Adriana Kugler, Christopher Waller, Patrick Harker, and Austan Goolsbee. Markets will also be alert to any new developments in U.S. tariff policy, particularly in response to Asian protectionist measures and potential trade announcements by President Trump.

The Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank officially begin today in Washington and will continue until April 26. Key publications expected during the event include the World Economic Outlook, the Global Financial Stability Report, and the Fiscal Monitor, all offering key insights into the current state and prospects of the global economy.

The U.S. economic calendar is relatively light, but highlights include March durable goods orders—which are expected to post a third consecutive monthly gain—and a likely decline in existing home sales.

On Wednesday, new home sales data in the U.S will be tracked. In February 2025, U.S. new single-family home sales rose 1.8% to an annualized rate of 676,000, partially rebounding from a 6.9% drop in January, though slightly below expectations (680,000). The modest recovery was supported by warmer weather and easing mortgage rates, but sales remain constrained by economic uncertainty.

Median home price stood at $414,500, and inventory remained high at 500,000 units, equating to 8.9 months of supply, well above the long-term average.

 While February data indicates some stabilization in U.S. new home sales, elevated inventories and regional disparities, alongside lingering economic uncertainty, suggest a cautious outlook for the housing market.

April’s flash S&P Global PMI survey will shed light on how businesses are reacting to escalating tariff threats. Additional data includes the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment reading for April.

In Canada, upcoming releases will cover retail sales and new housing price data.

This week in Europe, attention will center on April’s flash PMI data, which will provide early insight into how business activity and sentiment are reacting to recent trade tensions.

Forecasts indicate that manufacturing will likely remain in contraction across the Eurozone, Germany, France, and the UK. In the services sector, a slowdown is expected in the Eurozone, Germany, and the UK, while France may face a sharper downturn.

On Friday, UK retail sales will be in focus. After two consecutive months of growth, sales are projected to have declined in March.

Retail sales in the UK rose by 1% month-over-month in February 2025, defying expectations of a 0.3% decline. The upside surprise follows a downwardly revised 1.4% gain in January, pointing to continued strength in consumer activity early in the year.

Retail sales excluding fuel also rose by 1% in the month, following a 1.6% rise in January. On an annual basis, total retail sales climbed 2.2%, beating forecasts of a 0.5% increase and accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.6% in January.

These figures indicate that UK consumers remain relatively active, particularly in discretionary spending, despite external pressures. Future trends will depend on evolving trade dynamics and the interest rate environment.

In Germany, the Ifo business climate index—due Thursday—is expected to drop to a three-month low, reflecting growing concerns over trade-related uncertainties.

France is also likely to show signs of weakening, with business confidence seen falling to a six-month low and consumer sentiment to a four-month low. In the UK, GfK consumer confidence is forecast to slip to a three-month low.

Other key releases in the Eurozone include new car registrations, flash consumer sentiment, balance of trade, and updated figures on general government deficit and debt.

On Friday, the Central Bank of Russia will be in focus. The Bank is expected to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 21% in this week’s meeting.