Last Friday, Wall Street ended on a positive note after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report boosted investor confidence. Although hiring slowed, employers still added a solid 139,000 jobs in May, reflecting steady labor market resilience despite ongoing concerns over President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Markets also responded positively to Trump’s announcement that three of his cabinet members will meet with Chinese officials in London on June 9 to resume trade deal discussions.

• Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 19,529.95, up 1.20% on the day and up 2.18% for the week.
• NYSE Composite Index closed at 20,045.36, up 0.82% on the day and up 1.32% for the week.
• S&P 500 Index closed at 6,000.36, up 1.03% on the day and up 1.50% for the week.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average EW closed at 13,430.19, up 1.05% on the day and up 1.18% for the week.

On Friday, investors remained cautious ahead of the release of U.S. jobs data and amid lingering trade uncertainties. While the European Central Bank lowered interest rates earlier in the week, ECB President Christine Lagarde signalled that further monetary easing may be limited, tempering hopes for more aggressive stimulus measures.

• Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed at 553.64, up 0.32% on the day and up 0.91% for the week.
• DAX Performance Index closed at 24,304.46, down 0.08% on the day but up 1.28% for the week.
• CAC 40 Index closed at 7,804.87, up 0.19% on the day and up 0.68% for the week.

Markets responded to the anticipation of U.S. jobs data and viewed the latest U.S.–China communications as somewhat reassuring, though lacking any concrete progress. Investor sentiment remained cautious in mainland China and Hong Kong, with participants awaiting clearer signals from diplomatic talks expected later in the week.

• Nikkei 225 Index closed at 37,741.61, up 0.50% on the day but down 0.59% for the week.
• Hang Seng Index closed at 23,792.54, down 0.48% on the day but up 2.16% for the week.
• Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,385.36, up 0.04% on the day and up 1.13% for the week.
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 Index closed at 8,515.70, down 0.27% on the day but up 0.96% for the week.

• The Dollar Index (DXY), a closely watched gauge of the U.S. dollar’s performance against other major currencies, closed at 99.19, up 0.48% on the day, down 0.14% for the week, and down 8.54% year-to-date.
• The Brent crude oil, the global oil price benchmark, settled at $66.47 per barrel, gaining 1.73% on the day, up 5.88% for the week, but down 10.95% year-to-date.
• The Gold closed at $3,309.95 per ounce, down 1.28% on the day, up 0.63% for the week, and up a notable 26.12% year-to-date.
• The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield particularly responsive to Federal Reserve policy rates, rose to 4.05%, gaining 11.70 bps on the day and 13.70 bps for the week.
• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield an indicator of long-term borrowing costs, closed at 4.51%, up 12.10 bps on the day and 10.40 bps for the week.

This week, markets will remain sensitive to developments in U.S. trade negotiations, particularly any updates from the anticipated meeting between American and Chinese officials in London. Meanwhile, attention is also turning to the emerging rift between President Trump and Elon Musk, which could introduce further unpredictability into U.S. policy and market sentiment.

Economic data from the U.S. will be relatively light but critical. On Wednesday, the spotlight will be on inflation figures, with both CPI and PPI set to provide fresh clues about price trends.

Headline CPI is expected to remain stable at 2.3%, the lowest reading since early 2021, while core CPI and PPI are forecast to rise modestly. These data will feed into expectations for future Fed policy.

In April 2025, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in March but below the expected 0.3%.

The annual inflation rate eased to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, with declines in energy, food, and transportation inflation.

Rent inflation remained unchanged at 4% while energy prices dropped by 3.7% year-on-year in April 2025, following a 3.3% decline in the previous month.

Food prices eased to 2.8%, down from a nearly 1.5-year high of 3% recorded in March.

Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained steady at 2.8% annually, its four-year low, with monthly core prices rising 0.2%.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading will also be watched closely, particularly for signals on future spending behaviour.

Meanwhile, the monthly budget statement and jobless claims will offer further insight into fiscal conditions and labor market dynamics.

Across the region, Mexico and Brazil are set to release their latest inflation data, which may influence central bank expectations. Brazil will also report on retail sales and business sentiment, shedding light on domestic demand resilience amid global uncertainty.

In the UK, a slew of data releases may reinforce growing concerns about economic momentum. April GDP is expected to show the first contraction in half a year, weighed down by continued weakness in industrial output.

The unemployment rate is projected to edge up to 4.6%, its highest level since 2021, while wage growth is seen holding at 5.5%. These figures arrive ahead of the government’s Spending Review on June 11, where Chancellor Rachel Reeves will outline fiscal priorities for the years ahead.

Elsewhere in Europe, attention will turn to Euro Area industrial production, German wholesale prices, Italy’s industrial output and trade balance, and Russia’s inflation figures.

Industrial production in the Euro Area rose by 3.6% in March 2025 compared to the same month a year earlier. On a monthly basis, it increased by 2.6%.