What’s on the economic agenda this week?

M. Emin Zümrüt
| May 29, 2023

EquityRT’s macro research team presents the weekly economic update, providing insights into the significant economic developments that shape the global markets.

Our team analyzes economic news and trends from around the world, bringing you the latest information on the events that impact the financial landscape.

Stay informed with our analysis and commentary on the latest economic current events.

Key Takeaways for Investors

1. Positive developments in US debt ceiling talks have boosted market sentiment, leading to gains in stock market indexes.

2. Inflationary pressures are evident as the PCE deflator exceeds expectations, indicating a rise in prices.

3. Employment market data will influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, with indicators such as job openings, non-farm employment, jobless claims, and non-farm payrolls being crucial.

4. The Federal Reserve’s focus on reducing inflation suggests that mortgage interest rates will likely remain high in the near term.

5. Consumer confidence in the US remains at a lower level despite a slight upward revision, reflecting deteriorating expectations.

6. The Beige Book report and speeches by Federal Reserve members will provide key insights into the US economy and potential monetary policy changes.

7. The Euro Area outlook focuses on the ECB meeting minutes, manufacturing data, inflation indicators, consumer confidence, and GDP growth rates in France and Italy.

8. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI in Europe indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with Germany, the Euro Area, and the UK experiencing accelerated contractions.

9. In China, the official manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and Caixin Manufacturing PMI will provide insights into the country’s economic performance and the health of its sectors.

Overall, investors will closely monitor these economic indicators to gauge market trends, inflationary pressures, monetary policy decisions, and the performance of key economies.

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US Economic Outlook: Positive Developments in US Debt Ceiling Talks Boost Market Sentiment

On Friday, progress was made in ongoing negotiations regarding the debt ceiling in the US, leading to a positive impact on the stock market indexes, which closed the day with gains.

The Nasdaq Index (NDX: USN), recorded a daily increase of 2.19%, the S&P-500 Index (SPX: USY) rose by 1.30%, and the Dow-Jones Index (INDEXDJX: DJI) increased by 1%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed last week with a 1% increase, ending at 104.2. The price of Brent Crude Oil (LCO07: USC)  closed last week with a 1.8% increase, reaching $77 per barrel.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond ended last week with a 13 basis point increase, closing at 3.80%. The 2-year Treasury bond yield, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, closed last week with a 29 basis point increase, ending at 4.56%.

PCE Deflator Exceeds Expectations, Signaling Inflationary Pressures

In April, the PCE deflator showed a monthly increase of 0.4%, surpassing expectations of 0.3%. On an annual basis, it rose from 4.2% to 4.4%, exceeding the projected 4.3%.

Durable goods orders also demonstrated strength, with a monthly increase of 1.1% in April, defying expectations of a decline after a 3.3% rise in March.

The Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for May remained at its lowest level in the past six months, despite being revised upward from 57.7 to 59.2.

Looking ahead, upcoming economic data will provide further insights:

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Index for May will be closely monitored on Thursday to assess the state of economic activity. The preliminary data signaled a contraction in the manufacturing sector, dropping from 50.2 to 48.5, primarily due to weakened demand and a decline in new orders.

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Employment Market Data to Influence Monetary Policy

Employment market data will also be crucial in shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Key indicators include the JOLTS Job Openings report for April on Wednesday, ADP Non-Farm Employment data and weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the Non-Farm Payrolls report for May, which includes the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, on Friday.

Housing Market Shows Modest Price Increase, Slower Growth Rate

The housing market will be in focus with the release of the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for March on Tuesday and construction spending data for April on Thursday. The previous report showed a modest 0.2% monthly increase in home prices, while the annual growth rate slowed from 2.6% to 0.4%, reaching its lowest level since 2012.

The continued focus of the Federal Reserve on reducing inflation suggests that mortgage interest rates will remain high in the near term, which is expected to contribute to a weakening of housing prices. Construction spending, on the other hand, rebounded with a monthly increase of 0.3% in March following a 0.3% decline in February. However, in April, the growth rate is expected to slow down to 0.2%.

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Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Reflects Deteriorating Expectations

Investors will also keep an eye on the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May, which will be released on Tuesday. In April, the index declined more than expected, falling from 104 to 101.3 due to deteriorating consumer expectations.

Beige Book Report and Fed Speeches: Key Insights for Investors

On Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book Report, compiled with economic data from 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, will be released. The report will provide updated assessments of the US economy and expectations for the future. Additionally, throughout the week, speeches by Federal Reserve members will be closely monitored for potential new signals regarding the central bank’s monetary policy.

Source: EquityRT MacroAnalytics

Disclaimer: The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not an investment or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but EquityRT does not represent that it is accurate or complete. EquityRT does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect, or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author, as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.

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